What We Were Reading , Watching, and Doing, this Week

John Stanton |


The Leading Economic Index (LEI) from the Conference Board was down 0.5% in May, worse than expected

This was its third consecutive monthly decline after one increase in February.

This important indicator continues to signal that the direction of economic growth is still in question. 




The S&P 500 closed slightly higher for the week. 

Year to date,  S&P 500  up 14.60%. 


Yields rose slightly on the 10 Year Treasury,  closing at 4.25% on the week.

January 2024 10 Year Yield  3.946%   



The price of gold  closed up slightly for the week,   to $2,335.44 per troy ounce.  

Up 13.3%  YTD. 



Stock Market 

Weight of Evidence

Two Important Indicators to Track in the Near Term

Modified Advance Decline Divergence Index

Stock market “breadth” or participation has always been an extremely valuable tool at market tops. As the market becomes overvalued as a whole,  investors become more selective in their stock purchases.

The Advance-Decline (A-D) Line (cumulative total of daily advancing issues minus declining issues) is the most common tool to track breadth. 

One of the limitations to using this tool as an early warning a correction, or bear market in stocks,  is a  change that was made was the implementation of decimalized pricing of stocks in 2000. (minimum price increments of 0.01 instead of 1/16).  As a result, many measures of market breadth that had historically provided early warning, including the A-D Line, now appear to offer less of an advanced signal than in the past.

A well known market technician came up with a proprietary adjustment that solves for this problem,  by making several adjustments,  including adjusting for the effect of decimalization.

As a result,  their adjusted A-D Line  becomes a very reliable  warning of an impending bear market or major correction.



Lack of Selling on the Upside

This is a very bullish signal,  based on a stock market that is rising,  without any selling,  has bullish momentum. 

Historic Measures

Breached Key Levels Indicating Bullish Bias 

January 2023

Breached Higher Levels of Selling 

June 2023

Current Reading

More Bearish than June of 2023



Indicates that investors are selling ,  even when the stock market is declining,  and/or their positions are at a loss. 

Historic Measures

Indicating Bear Market (Danger)

January 2022

December 2023

Current Reading



Stanton Group Risk Management  Current Net Long Positioning

There were no changes made in our Net Long  Stock positioning within our model portfolios.  

Please schedule a call to review historical and current positioning using our  Core & Protect Risk Management Process, our research, and our model portfolios. 



Retirement Income Planning

"Potential Directions for Social Security"

Wade Pfau is a professor of retirement income in the Financial and Retirement Planning Ph.D. program at The American College and a principal at McLean Asset Management. He is also a principal at the  Retirement Researcher website,  where you can find his research on retirement income planning. 

Reforming social security is a topic we follow closely in our practice. 

Professor Pfau wrote this article to address the many concerns readers and clients have,  about the social security program.  



Summer Fun for a Good Foundation

CASA (Court Appointed Special Advocate)  is a nonprofit membership organization, which advocates for the best interest of children who have experienced abuse and neglect. They are composed of community volunteers who serve to protect a child’s right to a safe and permanent home. They are the child’s voice in court.

You can find out more about CASA Kendall County here.  https://casakendallcounty.org/   

Jill & I were invited to attend the annual Michael Turner Memorial Golf outing ,  supporting this great organization,  on Thursday.    Had a wonderful time,  met some terrific people! 

Thank you Lisa Coffey,  of Lisa Coffey Law,   https://lacoffeylaw.com/   for invitation!  





John is the founder of The Stanton Group WP. With more than three decades of experience in the financial services industry, and through SeaCrest Wealth Management, LLC,  serves as the Registered Investment Advisor Representative for clients, focusing on financial planning and the investment strategies to support their financial plan.

Based in Naperville, Illinois, John serves clients in Naperville, Plainfield, Darien, Aurora, Geneva, St Charles, and throughout the Chicagoland area.

Learn more about John’s services by visiting www.stantongwp.com

John can be reached at l 630-445-2380 or email JStanton@seacrestwm.com.

The Stanton Group WP provides investment advisory services through SeaCrest Wealth Management LLC, (the “SWM”) a registered investment advisor. SWM is a registered investment advisor (“RIA”), with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission located in the State of New York. SeaCrest Wealth Management, LLC can be reached at (914) 502-1900.

This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media)  reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of John Stanton,  and should not be regarded as the views of SeaCrest Wealth Management, LLC,  or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by SeaCrest Wealth Management, LLC,  or performance returns of any SeaCrest Wealth Management client.  

The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice.

Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. It also should not be construed as an offer soliciting the purchase or sale of any security mentioned.

Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Any indices referenced for comparison are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital; please seek advice from a licensed professional. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.